Analysis: Plotting, paranoia, enmity and dark threats

Like a ship's captain watching the mercury plummet before his eyes, Gordon Brown knows a hurricane is heading his way.

Until this week, the Glenrothes byelection, probably on November 6, was being billed as "Brown's next deadline".

Now it is clear that the storm could hit at any time. The first meeting of the PLP since the summer mayhem is a potential flashpoint.

The Cabinet reshuffle is one that cannot be avoided now Ruth Kelly is going. Nobody is sure what happened on the night that saw Ms Kelly's resignation plans leaked and then confirmed in a 3am huddle in the Midland Hotel.

Did one of Ms Kelly's friends let it slip to destroy the success of Gordon and Sarah's conference double act, which was the best moment by far of the PM's torrid summer? Or did someone close to the PM have a moment of madness and "out" the Transport Secretary in the belief that it was a good day to flush out a suspected traitor in the Cabinet?

Wise heads point out that since nobody gained, it was probably a giant screw-up. But the truth of the episode has passed into irrelevance. What matters is that the underlying cause, whether cock-up or conspiracy, was paranoia, enmity and division.

Some MPs compare the mood at No 10 to the White House of Richard Nixon. It was also part of a destructive pattern. This newspaper unwittingly caused mayhem two weeks ago when it quoted an unnamed minister who was thinking of quitting. Behind the scenes, an extraordinary operation was launched from No 10 to track down the rebel.

One minister, whose mobile was turned off that day, found two dozen missed calls, mainly from No 10. Another who was innocently out of contact claims his local paper and constituency were called by mysterious people seeking intelligence on his views.

Eventually the Brownite Inquisition seized on Scottish Office Minister David Cairns who confessed to harbouring doubts about Mr Brown and was ordered to resign on the spot.

Last week, Ms Kelly was suspected of being part of a plot to resign with two other ministers and call for a leadership contest. It is possible - particularly through the portholes of a battened-down Downing Street - to see that someone might have tried to spike her guns, with wretched results.