Brown has 'two months to save premiership' after Labour's crushing by-election defeat

13 April 2012

In the hot seat: A defiant Gordon Brown before the National Policy Forum today


Gordon Brown was facing the prospect of spending the next two months plotting to save his premiership today after Labour crashed to a catastrophic defeat in the super-safe seat of Glasgow East.

The Prime Minister will have to endure a  summer of uncertainty ahead of the party conference in September after one of the biggest ever political upsets saw the loss of the once rock-solid seat in his own backyard.

A victorious leader of the Scottish National Party, Alex Salmond, claimed the rout meant there were no longer any safe Labour seats in Scotland and that the message to Mr Brown was clear: 'Change your policy or change your job.'

Meanwhile, Tory leader David Cameron immediately called for a general election, declaring: 'We need a change'.

But Mr Brown brushed the suggestion aside, insisting yet again as he arrived to address the National Policy Forum that he was 'getting on with the job' and was fully focused on 'taking people through these difficult times'.

Speaking later, apparently without notes, he urged party activists: 'Have confidence that not only do we have the right policies but that when the time comes we will be able to persuade the British people.'

He did not want to wake up in 24 months to see the Tories' cutting taxes for the rich but slashing education and health budgets, said Mr Brown in a key speech aimed at boosting morale.

Senior ministers including Chancellor Alistair Darling, Hazel Blears and Douglas Alexander also rallied around him and insisted changing leader was the wrong move.

Mr Darling went so far as to say he was the 'right man for the job, not only for next two or three years but for the next 10 or 20 years.'

But others demanded he stand down for the good of the party, with Labour peer Lord Desai the first to speak out openly about the prospect of him stepping aside.

The peer, an open critic of Mr Brown, said seeing the party's chances of winning the next election ebb away was like 'watching a car crash in slow motion'.

Labour MP Graham Stringer urged ministers to take Mr Brown aside and tell him the Government could not carry on as it is and to stand against him if necessary.

'It really requires members of the Cabinet to have a closed and honest discussion with Gordon Brown,' he said.

"We need a new start and that can only come from a debate around the leadership. I hope those discussions will take place.

'It really is a question of whether the Labour Party has the will to win the next general election.'

GMB general secretary Paul Kenny added: 'There's no point dressing it up. It was an unmitigated disaster. The MPs have got to make a strong decision as to whether they want to go into an election with Gordon Brown or have a contest.'

Another unnamed senior Labour figure also admitted the Premier was in an extremely delicate position, saying: 'The next 72 hours will be crucial.'

Victor: A jubilant Mr Mason flies the flag for Scotland

Labour's majority of 13,507 was demolished in the vote in Glasgow, which saw an enormous 22 per cent swing to the Scottish National Party.

On a night of extraordinary political drama - including a nail-biting recount - the nationalists triumphed in the crunch by-election by a wafer-thin 365 votes.

If support drifted from Labour on that scale at a general election, Mr Cameron would seize power with a massive majority.

Faced with the possibility of losing their seats, nervous MPs are now certain to step up their campaign for Mr Brown to stand aside.

Senior Cabinet ministers will spend the summer discussing how to rescue the party - including the 'nuclear option' of ousting the PM.

His crucial test will come in two months time at the Labour Party's annual conference in September - meaning the next few weeks will decide his fate.

There was no sign of an immediate challenge to Mr Brown today but many of the party's MPs are understood to be talking in private of replacing him.

Defeat: Labour candidate Margaret Curran absorbs the loss

Lord Desai openly called for him to stand down, saying: 'He has to admit that he is the problem and he has to remove himself.

'Nobody else is going to challenge a sitting leader because that is too expensive and too damaging a process for the party.'

He also warned Labour had no chance of winning the next general election unless it stopped the rot and started to change.

'It is like watching a crash in slow motion,' he said. 'I don't think realistically I would put any money on our winning the next election, the only thing is how badly we will lose.'

Cabinet ministers are torn between their fears Mr Brown is a liability and concerns that a coup would alienate voters further by exposing the party's internal divisions.

Bookmakers William Hill have already slashed the odds of him leading Labour into the next election to 4/6 against, with Jack Straw the favourite to replace him.

As if voicing Labour's own fears, Mr Cameron said this morning: 'I wonder whether we can put up with this for another 18 months.

'I think whenever people have had a chance to speak about this Government, whether at the local elections, whether in Crewe, whether in Henley, whether in the London mayor elections and now in Glasgow, they have said "Look, we think you're failing and we want change".

He added: 'I think the Prime Minister should have his holiday but then I think we need an election. I think we need change in this country, and that's how change should come about.'

Knock-out blow? The SNP leader and Mr Mason during their campaign in Glasgow

SNP candidate John Mason trounced Labour's 10,912 votes with a poll of 11,277. The Conservatives took the third place with 1,639 votes and Liberal Democrats polled 915.

A wave of voter anger at soaring food and fuel prices, the stuttering economy and resentment over the axing of the 10p tax rate and a hike in vehicle excise duty saw the seat wrenched from Labour for the first time in 86 years.

Mr Mason hailed it as an epic win: 'Three weeks ago, the SNP predicted a political earthquake. This is off the Richter scale.The tremors will be felt all the way to Westminster.'

He added: 'Tonight we have removed the dead hand of Labour control.'

Ministers, however, insisted the defeat was not about Mr Brown as an individual and rallied behind him.

Communities Secretary Hazel Blears: 'The easy thing to do in times that are tough - and times are tough - is for a party to cut and run.

'That's not the Labour Party and that's not Gordon Brown. I think this election result is a very bad result for us. It's very difficult, but I think it's about the economy.

'Changing faces at the top of the party is not what people expect us to do. The voters are saying that, after 10 years of a pretty good economy, that situation has changed.'

International Development Secretary Douglas Alexander, warned the party not to self-destruct.

'If you want me to say it is a bad result, it is a bad result. I don't think it is a night to say it is about one particular individual,' he said.

'I would ask them to reflect on the time when I joined the Labour Party which was 1982, not in the heady heights of New Labour's success, but at a time of repeated and bitter defeats for the Labour Party.

'We learnt a very serious lesson at that point, which is that divided parties lose.'

Defence Secretary Des Browne admitted it was a 'bad night' for Labour and promised the party would 'take it seriously' but he stood by Mr Brown.

'Gordon Brown, in my view and the view of the party, is outstandingly the best politician in the country. He is a man of known strengths - the country knows his strengths,' he said.

'At the end of the day, when you ask them who is the man to see us through these tough times, they will tell us that.

'That doesn't necessarily mean that in the environment of a by-election they will go and vote for us, because they are sending other messages.'

Labour candidate Margaret Curran claimed she had paid the price of the national mood over soaring fuel and food prices but warned it was time to listen to the voters.

'I do believe the Labour Party has to listen and has to hear the message from the people of Glasgow East,' she said.

The PM was already reeling from humiliating by-election defeats in the former Labour stronghold of Crewe and Nantwich, and a wipeout in Henley, as his premiership has stumbled from crisis to crisis.

Last night's result was in spite of hundreds of extra activists working yesterday to get out the vote was all the more humiliating because it was unexpected.

During the day, senior Labour sources were talking about scraping a narrow four-figure victor and minutes after the polls closed, the were predicting a heavy defeat to the SNP.

By early evening anxiety had set in and Labour insiders were briefing that the by-election was 'too close to call'. Then, shortly after the ballot boxes were sealed at 10pm, well-placed sources had claimed they were on course to 'lose heavily'.

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP David Marshall on health grounds, although there was speculation that he jumped ship after his taxpayer-funded Commons expenses had come under close scrutiny.

Turnout in the constituency was 42.2 per cent – an impressive figure for a by-election and only six per cent down on the 48 per cent who cast a vote at the last general election in 2005.

Then, Labour cruised home with a massive 60.7 per cent of votes cast, beating the Scottish Nationalists by 18,775 to 5,268.

This time, nine candidates had contested the Westminster seat.

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