Gordon Brown 'has stopped bouncing'

The "Brown bounce" appeared to stop in its tracks today as a poll showed the Conservatives starting to extend their lead over Labour.

The ComRes/Independent survey puts the Tories on 39 per cent, up two points on last month. Labour is down two points to 34 per cent and the Lib Dems down one at 16 per cent.

The poll showed that as they face an economic downturn voters are turning their back on Labour's promise to tax more and spend more on public services. The survey suggested the Conservatives would win a huge majority if tax and spending became a key dividing line at the next election.

When asked how they would vote if the Tories committed themselves to lower public spending than Labour and to try not to raise taxes - David Cameron's current policy - 49 per cent said Tory, 32 per cent Labour and 11 per cent Liberal Democrats.

There was a similar result when people were asked how they would vote if Labour committed itself to higher public spending than the Tories and admitted it was likely to increase some personal taxes - Mr Brown's current position. The figures were: Tory 48 per cent, Labour 30 per cent, Liberal Democrats 13 per cent.

It highlights a crucial change in public mood since the 2001 and 2005 elections, when voters preferred Labour's pledge to invest in public services to Tory tax cuts.

It suggests Gordon Brown, who experienced a surge in the polls as the financial crisis began, should resist thoughts of a snap general election.

When asked how they would vote if the election were held "while the economy was in recession", 39 per cent said Tory, 38 per cent Labour and 14 per cent Liberal Democrat.

If the economy were growing again, 37 per cent said they would vote Tory, 37 per cent Labour and 16 per cent Liberal Democrat.