Libya: This may be the start of a war within a war

12 April 2012

The murder of the insurgent military chief Abdel Fatah Younes suggests that the messy situation in Libya is about to get much messier.

It now appears that this may be part of a new tribal feud - a civil war within a civil war.

All this is happening before anyone has got to first base in hammering out a durable peace deal after six months of murderous guerrilla war.

This week William Hague announced that the UK was recognising the committee of the insurgents in Benghazi as the official government of Libya - this before it is entirely certain they can run half the country, let alone the whole of Libya.

As an exercise in peacekeeping, stabilisation, and establishing democratic government in a key part of the Mediterranean neighbourhood, the Libyan mission now appears a fair dud.

The new National Security Council and Downing Street thought they could get away with a bit of military power "lite" - a bluff here, a threat there and the whole Gaddafi house of cards would come down. Well, it didn't, and so often with this government there is not much of a credible plan B. We are faced now with Libya being split into two not particularly viable and dangerous parts.

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