Relief is the other side of the ‘Old and Sad’ coin

David Cameron "took one for the team" in Oldham. And some of his troops are not happy about it.

It's not that coming third in "Old and Sad" was bad by historical standards, it's that he didn't try hard enough to come second.

The truth is, he is probably feeling quite relieved he took the bullet rather than his Lib-Dem partner Nick Clegg.

From his standpoint, the stability of the Coalition is all that matters: his worst nightmare is a wounded Clegg at the mercy of the Lib-Dem Left.

How differently it looks from the Tory Right wing. The Coalition has destroyed their influence, ministerial jobs and policies. What more, they ask, would Cameron sacrifice to appease a rump of Lib-Dems who wish they had struck a better bargain in the May agreement last year?

With a win under his belt, conditions are ripe for Ed Miliband to eat into Lib-Dem morale.

But he had a solid rather than a spanking victory and his claim that voters sent "a clear message" against cuts is not proved. It is 29 years since a government party took a seat from the opposition in a by-election (Mitcham & Morden in 1982) so it's no disgrace for Clegg not to snatch a Labour seat.

For Cameron, losing 7,000 votes looks bad but it was only a 13 per cent drop in share, hardly humiliating given sitting governments that start in third place lose three-quarters of their vote on average in a typical by-election squeeze.

Some by-elections shake the ruling elite and foretell sweeping change. This one created modest tremors.

Barnsley Central is next but the real earthquake could come in the council elections in May. In the battle for town halls, nobody dares to soft-pedal.