By Friday night London could have a Conservative Mayor in Boris Johnson but with Labour as the biggest party in the Assembly holding him to account.
Nothing would better illustrate the extraordinary “Boris factor” of how one man has managed to sail against the ebbing tide of David Cameron’s fortunes in this campaign. For a Prime Minister whose personal ratings have plunged since the Budget, this is a chance to repeat the tactic used by former Tory chairman Kenneth Baker in May 1990.
He managed to convince the world that awful Tory council losses across Britain mattered less than the fact that tax-cutting Wandsworth and Westminster councils had bucked the trend, creating a so-called “London effect”. The ruse bought time for an embattled Margaret Thatcher but failed to stop her being ousted that year. A Boris win would give Cameron a great headline but, ultimately, cannot save him if the electorate is turning against him.
For Ed Miliband the stakes are high because he really has no excuse to lose in a Labour-leaning city like the capital. His nightmare scenario is for Labour to be beaten in Glasgow by the SNP as well, opening him to the charge of having lost north and south. But our poll suggests there is another iceberg in Mr Cameron’s path in the form of Ukip. It is set to take two Assembly seats, beating the Greens, and is within one point of the Liberal Democrats on the Westminster vote.
YouGov’s national polls show Ukip growing to 10 per cent and ex-Billericay MP Teresa Gorman has defected to Nigel Farage’s ranks. The Right is dividing — that is where the real danger to the next Tory election campaign really lies.
