With exactly a week until voting begins, this feels like an unpredictable and nail-bitingly close race.
Today’s poll by ComRes finds Boris Johnson pulling ahead, widening his lead by two points.
But none of Mr Johnson’s allies are popping champagne corks. They were unnerved by Monday’s YouGov research that found Ken Livingstone was catching up.
The differences between the two polls are explained by pollsters carrying out fieldwork at different times, catching different currents of opinion in what is clearly an unsettled and undecided city.
Johnson has argued that it is no time to change horses at City Hall and today’s survey shows why he is keen to put the spotlight on the economic crisis. When forced to choose, more people think the Conservative candidate is the best choice to run London’s economy, to make London better as a place to work, run a business and to make the capital cleaner and safer. He is also clearly ahead on sticking up for the City (a double-edged sword, admittedly, since many Londoners do not love the Square Mile).
These issues do not necessarily sway voters in real life. ComRes finds that only eight per cent see backing the City as a priority and 13 per cent see promoting London internationally as vital. The issues that voters say matter most — cutting fares (63 per cent) and building cheap homes (47 per cent) — are both areas where Ken is ahead.
Today’s grim headlines about the state of the economy need not be bad news for the incumbent Mayor. If voters feel more anxious about their jobs in the next seven days, they may be more inclined to stick with a Mayor they know than take a chance on a change.
