Short of a miracle, David Cameron will be the big loser of the Eastleigh by-election when all the votes are counted by about 2am tomorrow.
A loser, not just because his party has been soundly out-fought on the pavements of Hampshire but because so much more is at stake for the Prime Minister than one seat in mid-term.
If the polls are right, outspoken Tory candidate Maria Hutchings is about five points behind dull-but-worthy Lib-Dem Mike Thornton, with late-surging Ukip nipping at her heels. Several senior Tories are privately admitting that Hutchings won’t win, though they believe the earth-trembling possibility of Ukip coming second has been overplayed.
Labour will come a poor fourth — a lousy result that reflects badly on Ed Miliband’s judgment in fielding a metropolitan comedian instead of a local chap. His ally Sadiq Khan’s words in this newspaper two weeks ago — that a good result in Eastleigh was necessary to show there are no “no go zones for Labour” in the South — will be replayed.
But Miliband will not suffer nearly as much as Cameron, if these tentative placings are confirmed, because he was never expected to win. Eastleigh is a seat that the Tories should win, and need to win if they are ever to hope to form a majority in 2015.
When Grant Shapps revealed to this newspaper last autumn that there were 10 Liberal Democrat targets on his secret list of 40 must-win seats, it was always clear that one belonged to disgraced Chris Huhne. Eastleigh is ranked the 16th most winnable Lib-Dem seat for the Tories. Victory here is essential to taking seats off Clegg in the South-East.
But, say Tory MPs, if we can’t win when the previous MP is facing jail and a Liberal grandee is embroiled in a sex scandal, something must be wrong.
Last month a group of Tory MPs set five “key tests” for Cameron to avert a leadership crisis in the next three months: a victory at Eastleigh; preserving Britain’s AAA credit rating; avoiding wipe-out in May council elections; averting a triple-dip recession; and a successful spring Budget.
“If all these went badly together, it could create an unstable situation,” said one.
The AAA test has already been flunked. Losing Eastleigh would notch a leadership crisis closer.
