General election constituency focus: Muswell Hill, where voters say Lib Dem Lynne Featherstone is fantastic - but they can't back her

 
Hill to climb: Lib-Dem Lynne Featherstone canvassing with her team in Muswell Hill
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The man on the doorstep in leafy Muswell Hill looked Lynne Featherstone in the eye and said baldly: “I voted for you last time, Lynne, and although you’ve been a great MP, I am likely to vote tactically for Labour to keep the Tories out nationally. Which I know,” he smiled sympathetically, “is tough on you.”

Minutes earlier the Liberal Democrat had been seeking to dissuade me from thinking that voters in Left-leaning Hornsey and Wood Green faced precisely this sort of local-national dilemma. But when Clive Seale, 59, a sociology lecturer, became the third voter in a row to articulate this quandary, her façade cracked.

“It drives me mad,” she said, venting her frustration in the midst of the toughest fight of her political life. “Everybody says, ‘we love you Lynne, fantastic MP Lynne, we like what you’ve done as minister on same-sex marriage and on FGM, but we’re worried about the Tories’.” Flashes of unguarded emotion are as rare on this highly staged campaign trail as they are illuminating. A few days later I witnessed another such moment, this time with Labour’s Catherine West outside Hornsey town hall in Crouch End, awaiting the arrival of Ed Miliband.

This was the high point of Ms West’s campaign so far, and as she stood among 400 or so cheering supporters brandishing Labour placards, the veteran Labour media adviser Don Brind sidled up for a word of advice.

“The whole point of this visit is that you are in lockstep with Ed and that you make sure you are in every shot,” he said. Ms West looked for reassurance. “Is my rosette straight? My make-up good?” she asked nervously. “In my experience,” replied Mr Brind, “that stuff doesn’t matter. Just smile and keep up with Ed.”

Ms West has a track record as the former leader of Islington council, but this is her first run at parliament and there are times when her insecurity shines through and she resembles a rabbit caught in the headlights.

YET this linguist with a Masters in Chinese Studies who came here from Australia 17 years ago and is a mother of two, is also politically canny. She knows she does not have the name recognition of her opponent, but also that she is not burdened by a deeply unpopular party, and she plays it to her advantage on the doorstep.

“Lynne might be well respected but she voted with the Coalition government 94 per cent of the time,” she told voters when I accompanied her door to door a few days before Mr Miliband’s visit. “The decision you face is not between me and Lynne, it’s between Labour and Tory. Do you want to see Ed or Dave stepping into No 10 after May 7?”

As the parties know, Hornsey and Wood Green is on a knife edge, with Nick Clegg coming down to bolster Ms Featherstone the day before Mr Miliband bolstered Ms West, and with the most recent poll, albeit back in February, showing Labour ahead by one percentage point.

Labour needs to overturn a 6,875 majority, a significant swing of 6.3 per cent, making it number 94 on its target list. Yet when I met Mr Miliband in a Crouch End ice cream parlour after his visit and asked him whether a win here would be the signal that he will be packing his bags for No 10, he refused to be drawn. “We’re making the weather against a lacklustre Conservative campaign and clearly this is an important seat for us,” he said. When pressed on whether Ms West’s success was a bellwether for his own prospects, he added: “I only go up to May 7 in my commentary.” There is no doubt that the local Labour Party has its tail up after being all but wiped out 10 years ago when voters punished their MP Barbara Roche for her support of the Iraq war and switched to Ms Featherstone.

The 2010 election saw Ms Featherstone further increase her support, solidifying her reputation as a hard-working local MP, and she has since become one of the star Lib-Dem performers in the Coalition. She is widely respected for her key role pushing the 2013 Same-Sex Marriage Act and for her high-profile campaigning against female genital mutilation, and she is also well regarded locally for keeping Labour-controlled Haringey council on its toes. But she has Coalition baggage, too, as her constituents remind her. “People ask me how I could have voted with the Government on the bedroom tax, on tuition fees,” Ms Featherstone responds. “I tell you how. I held my nose.”

What will be the deciding factor? Ms West believes that the poorer eastern side of the borough is more solidly Labour, and that it will come down to what the more affluent residents of Highgate, Muswell Hill and Crouch End decide. Will these “Guardian readers” return to the Labour fold? The Greens could yet have a say. Alex Sullivan, 45, a web developer, was not alone when he told Ms West: “I want to see a Labour-led coalition, but I am voting Green because I think all the major parties have lost the plot.”

The bookies believe that Ms Featherstone is doomed, with William Hill offering 1/3 odds on a Labour victory and 9/4 on the Lib-Dems. A loss for the Lib-Dems would be a big blow, this being their best bet of a seat in north London. But while momentum appears to be with Labour, write off Ms Featherstone at your peril.

She is backed by a huge team of volunteers that dwarfs even Labour’s revitalised local party. This seat may well be a lot closer than the bookies are predicting. @cohenstandard

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