Coronavirus deaths to continue to rise 'for two weeks' even after intensive care admissions start to drop, top Government adviser says

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Coronavirus deaths will continue to increase for two weeks even after admissions into intensive care begin to slow, the UK’s Chief Scientific Advisor has said.

Speaking at the daily Covid-19 press conference on Thursday, Sir Patrick Vallance warned that deaths will continue to rise after patient numbers have peaked.

​He said: “In general I'd expect the deaths to continue to go up for about two weeks after the intensive care picture improves.

“So we're not there yet in terms of knowing exactly when that would be, but that's the sort of timeframe I'd expect.”

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But Sir Patrick also said on Thursday that there were signs that hospital and intensive care admissions were beginning to level off.

Addressing the spread of the virus in the community, he said: “This is not doubling. In the community you’d expect this now to be shrinking for all the reasons I’ve said and the evidence suggests that’s what’s happening in terms of the transmission in community.”

Sir Patrick said it is important to continue with lockdown measures in place.

Chief Scientific Adviser Patrick Vallance speaking during a remote press conference to update the nation on the Covid-19 pandemic
10 Downing Street/AFP via Getty

This is because, as a result of the lockdown, there has been no "sharp uptake" in new cases, meaning the NHS should be able to cope, he said.

He added: “The measures that everybody has taken, the difficult things that we’ve all had to do, are making a difference, they’re making a big difference.

“We know that the social distancing is working and we know that people are doing what they’re supposed to do and we need to keep doing that.

“And the reason we need to keep doing that is because it stops the transmission of the virus in the community and we know that that is already happening.”

He added: “The message is clear which is the social distancing we’re doing is breaking transmission, it’s stopping the hospital admissions, beginning to see that flattening off, still unbelievably busy but beginning to see that flatten off, it’s preventing more people going into intensive care and it will prevent deaths.”

Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty, asked about the speed of infection, said: “At the time when I was first talking about this the doubling time – how fast we were doubling in terms of numbers, particularly in intensive care – was about three days, it varied a bit.

“This has got steadily longer in time over the last two weeks thanks to what people have done.”

He added: “This is really now becoming not quite flat but the doubling time is now six or more days in almost everywhere in the country and extending in time.”

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