Economist warns of 'bleak time'

The Bank of England's chief economist, Spencer Dale has warned of 'relatively hard times ahead'
12 April 2012

The possibilities of growth remaining feeble and inflation high are "very significant risks", according to the Bank of England's chief economist.

Spencer Dale said there are "relatively hard times ahead".

He told the BBC: "I am not confident about the strength of the recovery, particularly in terms of the weakness we see in the household sector and the implications that may have for consumption."

He added: "I am even more worried about inflation and the risk that we may see price pressures from the rest of the world continue to push up and the high levels of inflation we have seen in the UK persist for longer than we otherwise expect."

The BBC report said that Mr Dale, who sits on the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), had voted for a 0.25% increase in its official interest rate in recent months, but was in a minority, with the decisions coming down in favour of holding rates at the record low of 0.5%.

Asked if households should expect an increase in the cost of borrowing some time this year, he said: "I think the level of interest rates at the moment is at an extraordinary low level - the Bank rate is at the lowest level it's ever been.

"At some point, I do expect interest rates to rise, but how quickly and how much, I really can't say."

He warned: "I think the next year or two will be a relatively bleak time. I think we have relatively hard times ahead."

And he added: "I am worried about growth remaining feeble and I am also worried about inflation remaining high - and if you like that's the dilemma facing the MPC at the moment - trying to balance these two very significant risks."

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