Gordon's missed his moment - expert

12 April 2012

As Gordon Brown faces a nailbiting weekend over his General Election plans, a political analyst has said he should have seized his moment earlier if he were minded to go to the country.

A clutch of polls has seen Labour's lead over the Conservatives almost evaporate, with one even placing the two parties neck and neck.

Professor Jonathan Tonge, of the University of Liverpool, said the Conservatives' position in the polls would be buoyed by the fact they had just held their party conference.

He said: "Normally, after a party conference parties can expect to increase their poll rating by about 2%. The Conservatives look like they have gained a bit of added value."

But he said if the Prime Minister was going to go to the country, he should have made his move when Labour was having its own conference.

"Instead, we are in the position where David Cameron was able to say, 'Bring it on', and (act) as if he was setting the agenda."

Prof Tonge added that the expected bounce from the party conference "should have been apparent to any party strategist".

The expert said the Labour lead could be "more fragile than you might think", adding that a 3% margin of error had to be factored in.

Another worry for Mr Brown must be voter volatility, judging by huge variations in the popularity of both parties in the polls from one month to the next.

The professor insisted that polls were increasingly reliable, although he warned they had overstated Labour's popularity in recent years.

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